U.S. Hail Frequency and the Global Wind Oscillation
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Published on 2018 by
Abstract: Changes in Earth relative atmospheric angular momentum can be described by an index known as the Global Wind Oscillation. This global index accounts for changes in Earth's atmospheric budget of relative angular momentum through interactions of tropical convection anomalies, extratropical dynamics, and engagement of surface torques (e.g., friction and mountain). It is shown herein that U.S. hail events are more (less) likely to occur in low (high) atmospheric angular momentum base states when excluding weak Global Wind Oscillation days, with the strongest relationships found in the boreal spring and fall. Severe, significant severe, and giant hail events are more likely to occur during Global Wind Oscillation phases 8, 1, 2, and 3 during the peak of U.S. severe weather season. Lower frequencies of hail events are generally found in Global Wind Oscillation phases 4–7 but vary based on Global Wind Oscillation amplitude and month. In addition, probabilistic anomalies of atmospheric ingredients supportive of hail producing supercell thunderstorms closely mimic locations of reported hail frequency, helping to corroborate report results. Plain Language Summary: Changes in patterns of wind across Earth have been demonstrated to impact the likelihood of weather patterns conducive to severe weather. This research shows that jet stream wind patterns that are wavy (meridional) are more likely to produce severe hailstorms. In addition, we demonstrate a framework that may be useful for the advanced prediction of damaging hailstones that are mostly likely to cause economic loss. Key Points: GWO phase explains significant variability in U.S. severe hail frequency Damaging hailstones are most frequent in GWO phases 1, 2, 3, and 8 Observed hail report variability is corroborated by GWO modulated favorable atmospheric environments.
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